When Robert Hartwig Talks, People Listen...
As I was pulling this post together, for good reason, the old EF Hutton commercials we grew up with (dating myself)...
...came to mind. "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen"...
As EF Hutton was considered (or at least advertised) as "the smartest guy in room" for all things investments; the same holds true for Robert Hartwig @Bob_Hartwig when it comes to insurance economics. He is the guy insurance company CEO's call to help predict the future and someone I have had the pleasure to meet and see present on a few occasions. You will not see anyone provide more data and direction in a short session that is credible and meaningful.
Robert, a PHD/CPCU, was the former Chief Economist of the Insurance Institute of America and currently serves as the Clinical Associate Professor of Finance, Risk Management & Insurance @ USC's Darla Moore School of Business. His latest presentation points to some areas that are important to understand and budget for.
PDF - P/C Insurance Industry Overview & Outlook: Pandemics, Politics & Economics
I have listed some of my key take-aways below and the slide number you can reference for the detail:
Slide 12 – 12.5-25% reduction in workers' compensation premiums based on rate reductions coupled with drop in exposure basis due to COVID-19. COVID-19 Claims will not be used for rate-making purposes in most states until 2021. All other lines are seeing material drops in written premium due to usage, but rates at the same time are on the rise.
Slide 13 – Range of workers' compensation losses on a national basis due to presumption is $.2 - $92B … quite a delta and as you will note, and a far greater one than any other line (which are also not yet understood). The range for Business Interruption losses is next with anywhere from $2B - $22B expected. The courts will be the most impactful on where this end result comes in based on policy interpretation. Policy language and intent will be the battlefronts.
Slide 15 – Cost of COVID v comparable pandemics in recent age - the cost and number of countries impacted by COVID-19 versus other pandemics (SIKA, Swine Flu, SARS etc.) is staggering and exponential.
Slide 30 - Presents the investment yield trends for 10-year US Securities which is a foundational "safe" investment for insurance carriers - down 61%. Puts more pressure on operational results which in turn, more pressure on upward pricing.
Slide 31 - 9 of the the top 10 ever point drops on the S and P ever occurred in 2020. The 3'rd largest percentage drop in history occurred on 3/16/20 at -11.98%/-324.9 points. This volatility is of grave concern to the investment strategies of the insurance carrier community. This also puts upward pressure on pricing.
Slide 41 - Business closures will cause debt of $3T for at least a generation to overcome. This is very saddening and a complex issue to make a call on. Be safe and put us in debt for another generation or open up and hope for the best? Question of the century -
Slide 47 – Rates on most lines of insurance (with the exception of Workers' Compensation) are rising at a rapid pace. Umbrella (20%) and Directors and Officers insurance (16.8%) being hammered the hardest, with Business Interruption (9.7%), Commercial Auto (9.6%) and Employment Practices Liability insurance (9.4%) also expecting hefty increases.
Slide 50 – Business Interruption insurance will be highly litigated going forward, especially on those policies that do not have a pandemic disease exclusion. This and the presumption issue in regard to workers' compensation are what will cause the greatest uncertainty going forward as to the exposure to the insurance community and how they react as a result the pandemic.
In conclusion, it has been a long cycle of premium reductions. Drop of exposure basis (payrolls, sales, miles travelled etc) may neutralize overall premiums to some extent, but the "as is or lower" rate renewals of the last decade will be very tough to navigate this year. Get out ahead of your renewals, especially on the specialty casualty side. Let us know if we can help.
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